Australia wildfires probe recommends climate risk forecasts

An investigation into Australia’s catastrophic wildfire season has recommended greater efforts to forecast the impacts of climate change on specific parts of the country, warning fire behavior was becoming more extreme

The Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements began in February while wildfires were ravaging vast swathes of the nation’s southeast in a fire season that is now known as Black Summer.

The commission’s 578-page report, with 387 pages of appendices, made 80 recommendations, including for a greater harmonization of data across Australia on climate and disaster risks.

The report said federal and state governments should produce “downscaled” climate projections, and agree on climate trajectories and timelines. Discrepancies between states’ fire hazard mapping methods “make it difficult to measure risk at a national scale or to undertake comparative risk between regions.

“Improving weather forecasting and climate projection capability is important to improve the ability to predict or estimate the likelihood of extreme” wildfires, the report said, citing the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, an Australian government agency.

The role of climate change in the fire emergency was argued by lawmakers in the conservative government. Some blamed the scale of the disaster on arsonists.

The report found further global warming over the next 20 years “is inevitable.”

“Floods and bushfires are expected to become more frequent and intense,” the report said.

Emergency Management Minister David Littleproud described the recommendations as “very pragmatic.”

The report “goes into the next journey in this nation’s healing after one of the most significant natural disasters in our nation’s history,” Littleproud said.

The wildfire season has again opened in Australia. But unlike the last drought-parched season, above-average rainfall is forecast over eastern and northern Australia during the Southern Hemisphere summer. A more active tropical cyclone season is also forecast.


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