Ryan Moore’s lowdown on Newmarket and Longchamp including Mogul, Fancy Blue and Peaceful

In his Betfair column, leading jockey Ryan Moore gives readers the lowdown on his weekend rides. He will be aboard Mogul in Sunday’s feature, the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

Saturday

Newmarket 1.05 Bolshoi Ballet

It looks like being pretty deep ground at Newmarket, which is always a real test for youngsters making their debuts, but hopefully he handles it OK.

He is a brother to the stable’s very smart stayer Southern France, who won on soft but probably preferred a decent surface – and this Galileo colt obviously doesn’t want for a decent pedigree.

But a couple of the other newcomers are also very well connected, so this could be a fair maiden, for all those to have raced haven’t shown a great deal.

You can obviously ignore Wahraan’s debut here last week though, as he totally missed the break for me.



Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore

That will at least have given him some racing experience.

Newmarket 2.10 Moonlight In Paris

Her best efforts have come on testing ground, so that is in her favour here.

She won on her debut in heavy ground last season and was just touched off on soft on the July course in August.

She looks on a fair enough mark off 85.

Newmarket 2.45 Peaceful

This Sun Chariot has depth if not a stand-out performer and Peaceful looks to have as strong a claim as any – perhaps with the exception of the progressive Champers Elysees.

She beat her by just over a length over the mile in the Matron last time.



Peaceful ridden by Seamie Heffernan (left) wins the 2020 Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas

But my filly was coming off a two-month break there and hopefully there is some improvement in her from that outing, while we know she handles soft and she showed she stays well when a narrow third in the French Oaks.

You have to be hopeful of a very bold show from her.

Newmarket 4.30 One Small Step

I rode her when she won well on fast ground at Yarmouth in July and hopefully she can handle the softer conditions if taking her chance here.

She ran well enough when third off this mark at Sandown last time.

Sunday



Frankie Dettori riding Enable (left) to win the 2017 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

Longchamp 1.15 St Mark’s Basilica

I got on him for the first time in the National Stakes and I was impressed as he finished third to Thunder Moon.

That was a big step up from his soft-ground maiden win at the Curragh and I expect him to improve again for it.

He obviously has a very decent chance in a race which has cut up to just six runners.

Longchamp 1.50 Mother Earth

She has plenty of experience, which will come in handy in this ground, but she does need to step up win here.

Pretty Gorgeous and Fev Rover set the form standard.

But we know she handles soft going really well, winning her Group 3 on it and when finishing third to the subsequent Moyglare one-two in the Debutante Stakes, so she has her conditions at least.

She does need to put her modest run in the Moyglare last time behind her though.

Longchamp 3.05 Mogul

I wouldn’t say this race is now Enable’s to lose after Love was taken out on Thursday, because I don’t think any horse is likely to be in their element with the ground this heavy, but of course she is the one to beat.



Ryan Moore rides Mogul in the Arc

Her form this season seems to be just about on a par to previous years and everyone else has to step up to her level – providing she runs her race in the conditions.

And it is going to be bad out there.

Stradivarius is probably the closest to her in terms of form and class and he was at his best when winning the Gold Cup in very bad ground at Royal Ascot in the summer.

He has to enter calculations after a decent trial behind Anthony Van Dyck in the Foy, but his 1m4f performances obviously give him a fair bit to find with a top-form Enable.

Sottsass and Japan have similar chances on their placed efforts in this race last year, on what was deep ground.

Sottsass shaped pretty well in the Irish Champion last time, more so than Japan and I think both of those are best at 1m4f.

They have their each-way chances here, for all they would prefer better ground.

Serpentine is likely to go forward I imagine, so I don’t think his draw in 15 is necessarily that a big negative, but my mount Mogul looks to be well enough berthed in three.

Whether or not he will enjoy ground this bad is again very debatable – that will be a recurring theme of the weekend – but we can’t change that and I know Aidan is very happy with him.

He has taken a while to reach the level we thought he was capable of at the start of the season but he was very impressive when beating In Swoop in the Grand Prix de Paris last time.

He will need to run right up to that form in this ground if he is to trouble the form horses and probably improve on it to win, but he is going the right way now.

Longchamp 3.50 Fancy Blue

She won on soft ground at two but, again, whether she wants this type of testing surface is to be seen.

Her draw in 12 could have been better.

But form-wise she is right up there after Group 1 wins in the French Oaks and Nassau and there was no disgrace in finishing third to good horses over a mile in the Matron last time.



Fancy Blue won the Qatar Nassau Stakes on day three of Glorious Goodwood

I think this step back up to 1m2f will suit her, but she will need to be at her best as this is a very good renewal.

It could take a fair bit of winning with the likes of impressive Vermeille winner Tarnawa in here, alongside Marois heavy ground runner-up Alpine Star and the unbeaten Tawkeel.

Longchamp 4.25 Keep Busy

She had a fair bit to find going into the race at the Curragh last time, but she ran a great race to be beaten just half-a-length by Glass Slippers in the Group 1 Flying Five.

Obviously this is an even harder test for her – though one made a lot easier after Battaash was taken out on Friday morning.

She is improving and her soft ground form gives you plenty of hope she will handle conditions.

She isn’t out of this by any means.

Longchamp 4.55 Lope Y Fernandez

This looks a very good renewal of the race and Lope Y Fernandez could just be suited to the test.

He was a little disappointing on the face it at Haydock last time but didn’t have a smooth preparation going into the race, so I thought he ran OK in the circumstances.

His earlier Group 1 efforts behind Pinatubo and Space Blues at Deauville – not ideally positioned on either occasion – give him decent form claims.

I always thought he would handle soft. Maybe not as soft as this, but we will see.

I think he has a Group 1 win in him and 7f around here promises to suit him, though he could have been better drawn.

source.



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